NFL Picks Against the Spread — Week 1
Here is the full Week 1 board. Each line shows the market spread, the side our main model lands on, and a confidence score for how strongly it backs that call. The model chips next to it show whether the rest of our strategies agree or split, so you can see the difference between a clean read and a coin flip before anything is graded.
This week's PulsePicks
- UpcomingMon Sep 14, 12:20 AM UTC
DAL @ NYG
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it New York Giants +2.5 (1.5 pts off the market). Lean: New York Giants +2.5 at 53% confidence.
- Spread
- New York Giants +2.5
- Total
- 48.5
- PulsePick
- New York Giants +2.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick53%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingFri Sep 11, 12:35 AM UTC
SF @ LAR
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (0.8 pts off the market). Lean: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at 52% confidence.
- Spread
- Los Angeles Rams -3.5
- Total
- 48.5
- PulsePick
- Los Angeles Rams -3.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
BAL @ IND
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (1.2 pts off the market). Lean: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at 52% confidence.
- Spread
- Indianapolis Colts +3.5
- Total
- 48.5
- PulsePick
- Indianapolis Colts +3.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
CLE @ JAX
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (1.0 pts off the market). Lean: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 at 52% confidence.
- Spread
- Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
- Total
- 40.5
- PulsePick
- Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
BUF @ HOU
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Houston Texans +1.5 (0.9 pts off the market). Lean: Houston Texans +1.5 at 52% confidence.
- Spread
- Houston Texans +1.5
- Total
- 44.5
- PulsePick
- Houston Texans +1.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingThu Sep 10, 12:20 AM UTC
NE @ SEA
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (0.7 pts off the market). Lean: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Seattle Seahawks -3.5
- Total
- 44.5
- PulsePick
- Seattle Seahawks -3.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
NYJ @ TEN
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Tennessee Titans -3.0 (0.6 pts off the market). Lean: Tennessee Titans -3.0 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Tennessee Titans -3.0
- Total
- 38.5
- PulsePick
- Tennessee Titans -3.0
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
ATL @ PIT
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Atlanta Falcons +3.0 (0.4 pts off the market). Lean: Atlanta Falcons +3.0 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0
- Total
- 42.5
- PulsePick
- Atlanta Falcons +3.0
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
CHI @ CAR
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Carolina Panthers +2.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Carolina Panthers +2.5 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Carolina Panthers +2.5
- Total
- 46.5
- PulsePick
- Carolina Panthers +2.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTC
MIA @ LV
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Miami Dolphins +3.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Miami Dolphins +3.5 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Las Vegas Raiders -3.5
- Total
- 40.5
- PulsePick
- Miami Dolphins +3.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTC
GB @ MIN
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Minnesota Vikings +1.5
- Total
- 45.5
- PulsePick
- Minnesota Vikings +1.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTC
WSH @ PHI
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
- Total
- 47.5
- PulsePick
- Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTC
ARI @ LAC
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Arizona Cardinals +10.5 (0.7 pts off the market). Lean: Arizona Cardinals +10.5 at 51% confidence.
- Spread
- Los Angeles Chargers -10.5
- Total
- 46.5
- PulsePick
- Arizona Cardinals +10.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
TB @ CIN
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (0.0 pts off the market). Lean: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at 50% confidence.
- Spread
- Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
- Total
- 51.5
- PulsePick
- Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTC
NO @ DET
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Detroit Lions -7.0 (0.2 pts off the market). Lean: Detroit Lions -7.0 at 50% confidence.
- Spread
- Detroit Lions -7.0
- Total
- 49.5
- PulsePick
- Detroit Lions -7.0
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
- UpcomingTue Sep 15, 12:15 AM UTC
DEN @ KC
PulsePicks: Our rating makes it Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (0.1 pts off the market). Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 at 50% confidence.
- Spread
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.0
- Total
- 42.5
- PulsePick
- Kansas City Chiefs -3.0
- Result
- Pending
- Confidence
- Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models.
Model inputs: power ratings
| Status | Matchup | Spread | Total | PulsePick | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upcoming |  DAL @ NYGMon Sep 14, 12:20 AM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it New York Giants +2.5 (1.5 pts off the market). Lean: New York Giants +2.5 at 53% confidence. | New York Giants +2.5 | 48.5 | New York Giants +2.5 | Our PulsePick53%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  SF @ LARFri Sep 11, 12:35 AM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (0.8 pts off the market). Lean: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at 52% confidence. | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 48.5 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  BAL @ INDSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (1.2 pts off the market). Lean: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at 52% confidence. | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | 48.5 | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  CLE @ JAXSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (1.0 pts off the market). Lean: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 at 52% confidence. | Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 | 40.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 | Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  BUF @ HOUSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Houston Texans +1.5 (0.9 pts off the market). Lean: Houston Texans +1.5 at 52% confidence. | Houston Texans +1.5 | 44.5 | Houston Texans +1.5 | Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  NE @ SEAThu Sep 10, 12:20 AM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (0.7 pts off the market). Lean: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at 51% confidence. | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 | 44.5 | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  NYJ @ TENSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Tennessee Titans -3.0 (0.6 pts off the market). Lean: Tennessee Titans -3.0 at 51% confidence. | Tennessee Titans -3.0 | 38.5 | Tennessee Titans -3.0 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  ATL @ PITSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Atlanta Falcons +3.0 (0.4 pts off the market). Lean: Atlanta Falcons +3.0 at 51% confidence. | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 | 42.5 | Atlanta Falcons +3.0 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  CHI @ CARSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Carolina Panthers +2.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Carolina Panthers +2.5 at 51% confidence. | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | 46.5 | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  MIA @ LVSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Miami Dolphins +3.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Miami Dolphins +3.5 at 51% confidence. | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 | 40.5 | Miami Dolphins +3.5 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  GB @ MINSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 at 51% confidence. | Minnesota Vikings +1.5 | 45.5 | Minnesota Vikings +1.5 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  WSH @ PHISun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (0.3 pts off the market). Lean: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 at 51% confidence. | Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | 47.5 | Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  ARI @ LACSun Sep 13, 08:25 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Arizona Cardinals +10.5 (0.7 pts off the market). Lean: Arizona Cardinals +10.5 at 51% confidence. | Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 | 46.5 | Arizona Cardinals +10.5 | Our PulsePick51%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  TB @ CINSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (0.0 pts off the market). Lean: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at 50% confidence. | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | 51.5 | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  NO @ DETSun Sep 13, 05:00 PM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Detroit Lions -7.0 (0.2 pts off the market). Lean: Detroit Lions -7.0 at 50% confidence. | Detroit Lions -7.0 | 49.5 | Detroit Lions -7.0 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |
| Upcoming |  DEN @ KCTue Sep 15, 12:15 AM UTCPulsePicks: Our rating makes it Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (0.1 pts off the market). Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 at 50% confidence. | Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 | 42.5 | Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. Model inputs: power ratings | Pending |