NFL Picks Against the Spread — Week 8
Here is the full Week 8 board. Each line shows the market spread, the side our main model lands on, and a confidence score for how strongly it backs that call. The model chips next to it show whether the rest of our strategies agree or split, so you can see the difference between a clean read and a coin flip before anything is graded.
This week's PulsePicks
- Loss
ARI @ SF
SF 36 · ARI 30
Pick SF -8.5 · missed by 2.5
The market lists San Francisco 49ers -8.5; our model projects San Francisco 49ers to win by about 14, so we lean San Francisco 49ers -8.5, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- San Francisco 49ers -8.5
- Total
- 47.5
- Our projection
- San Francisco 49ers by 14
- PulsePick
- San Francisco 49ers -8.5
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 64%
- Loss
ATL @ GB
ATL 35 · GB 14
Pick GB -6.0 · missed by 27
The market lists Green Bay Packers -6.0; our model projects Green Bay Packers to win by about 8, so we lean Green Bay Packers -6.0, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- Green Bay Packers -6.0
- Total
- 43.5
- Our projection
- Green Bay Packers by 8
- PulsePick
- Green Bay Packers -6.0
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 59%
- Win
NYJ @ DET
DET 31 · NYJ 24
Pick DET -6.5 · covered by 0.5
The market lists Detroit Lions -6.5; our model projects Detroit Lions to win by about 7, so we lean Detroit Lions -6.5, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- Detroit Lions -6.5
- Total
- 48.5
- Our projection
- Detroit Lions by 7
- PulsePick
- Detroit Lions -6.5
- Result
- Win
- Confidence
- Called it at 58%
- Win
LAC @ BUF
BUF 24 · LAC 16
Pick BUF -7.0 · covered by 1
The market lists Buffalo Bills -7.0; our model projects Buffalo Bills to win by about 9, so we lean Buffalo Bills -7.0, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- Buffalo Bills -7.0
- Total
- 50.5
- Our projection
- Buffalo Bills by 9
- PulsePick
- Buffalo Bills -7.0
- Result
- Win
- Confidence
- Called it at 57%
- Loss
CAR @ CLE
CLE 21 · CAR 18
Pick CAR -2.5 · missed by 5.5
The market lists Carolina Panthers -2.5; our model projects Carolina Panthers to win by about 3, so we lean Carolina Panthers -2.5, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- Cleveland Browns +2.5
- Total
- 42.5
- Our projection
- Carolina Panthers by 3
- PulsePick
- Carolina Panthers -2.5
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 57%
- Loss
LAR @ DEN
DEN 30 · LAR 26
Pick LAR -2.5 · missed by 6.5
The market lists Los Angeles Rams -2.5; our model projects Los Angeles Rams to win by about 3, so we lean Los Angeles Rams -2.5, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- Denver Broncos +2.5
- Total
- 45.5
- Our projection
- Los Angeles Rams by 3
- PulsePick
- Los Angeles Rams -2.5
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 57%
- Push
BAL @ DAL
BAL 34 · DAL 31
Pick DAL +3.0 · landed on the number
The market lists Baltimore Ravens -3.0; our model projects Dallas Cowboys to win by about 1, so we lean Dallas Cowboys +3.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Dallas Cowboys +3.0
- Total
- 52.5
- Our projection
- Dallas Cowboys by 1
- PulsePick
- Dallas Cowboys +3.0
- Result
- Push
- Confidence
- Called it at 56%
- Loss
LV @ NO
LV 35 · NO 27
Pick NO -3.0 · missed by 11
The market lists New Orleans Saints -3.0; our model projects New Orleans Saints to win by about 4, so we lean New Orleans Saints -3.0, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- New Orleans Saints -3.0
- Total
- 43.5
- Our projection
- New Orleans Saints by 4
- PulsePick
- New Orleans Saints -3.0
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 56%
- Loss
TEN @ NYG
NYG 12 · TEN 7
Pick TEN +3.5 · missed by 1.5
The market lists New York Giants -3.5; our model sees it as a near coin flip, so we lean Tennessee Titans +3.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- New York Giants -3.5
- Total
- 40.5
- Our projection
- Pick'em
- PulsePick
- Tennessee Titans +3.5
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 55%
- Loss
MIN @ TB
MIN 23 · TB 16
Pick TB +1.5 · missed by 5.5
The market lists Minnesota Vikings -1.5; our model projects Minnesota Vikings to win by about 1, so we lean Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5, and the expert consensus agrees.
- Market line
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5
- Total
- 42.5
- Our projection
- Minnesota Vikings by 1
- PulsePick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 52%
- Win
HOU @ IND
IND 19 · HOU 17
Pick IND +2.5 · covered by 4.5
The market lists Houston Texans -2.5; our model sees it as a near coin flip, so we lean Indianapolis Colts +2.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Indianapolis Colts +2.5
- Total
- 43.5
- Our projection
- Pick'em
- PulsePick
- Indianapolis Colts +2.5
- Result
- Win
- Confidence
- Called it at 50%
- Loss
KC @ MIA
KC 24 · MIA 10
Pick MIA +11.5 · missed by 2.5
The market lists Kansas City Chiefs -11.5; our model projects Kansas City Chiefs to win by about 10, so we lean Miami Dolphins +11.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Miami Dolphins +11.5
- Total
- 45.5
- Our projection
- Kansas City Chiefs by 10
- PulsePick
- Miami Dolphins +11.5
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 50%
- Win
CIN @ PIT
PIT 30 · CIN 27
Pick PIT +3.5 · covered by 6.5
The market lists Cincinnati Bengals -3.5; our model projects Cincinnati Bengals to win by about 2, so we lean Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
- Total
- 42.5
- Our projection
- Cincinnati Bengals by 2
- PulsePick
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
- Result
- Win
- Confidence
- Called it at 50%
- Win
SEA @ WSH
WSH 33 · SEA 31
Pick WSH +7.0 · covered by 9
The market lists Seattle Seahawks -7.0; our model projects Seattle Seahawks to win by about 5, so we lean Washington Commanders +7.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Washington Commanders +7.0
- Total
- 40.5
- Our projection
- Seattle Seahawks by 5
- PulsePick
- Washington Commanders +7.0
- Result
- Win
- Confidence
- Called it at 50%
- Loss
NE @ JAX
JAX 35 · NE 6
Pick NE +3.0 · missed by 26
The market lists Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0; our model projects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by about 3, so we lean New England Patriots +3.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0
- Total
- 45.5
- Our projection
- Jacksonville Jaguars by 3
- PulsePick
- New England Patriots +3.0
- Result
- Loss
- Confidence
- Called it at 50%
- Win
PHI @ CHI
CHI 27 · PHI 7
Pick CHI +3.0 · covered by 23
The market lists Philadelphia Eagles -3.0; our model projects Philadelphia Eagles to win by about 1, so we lean Chicago Bears +3.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence).
- Market line
- Chicago Bears +3.0
- Total
- 43.5
- Our projection
- Philadelphia Eagles by 1
- PulsePick
- Chicago Bears +3.0
- Result
- Win
- Confidence
- Called it at 50%
| Status | Matchup | Market line | Our projection | Total | PulsePick | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final |  ARI @ SFThe market lists San Francisco 49ers -8.5; our model projects San Francisco 49ers to win by about 14, so we lean San Francisco 49ers -8.5, and the expert consensus agrees. | San Francisco 49ers -8.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 14 | 47.5 | San Francisco 49ers -8.5 | Our PulsePick64%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | LossSF 36 · ARI 30 |
| Final |  ATL @ GBThe market lists Green Bay Packers -6.0; our model projects Green Bay Packers to win by about 8, so we lean Green Bay Packers -6.0, and the expert consensus agrees. | Green Bay Packers -6.0 | Green Bay Packers by 8 | 43.5 | Green Bay Packers -6.0 | Our PulsePick59%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | LossATL 35 · GB 14 |
| Final |  NYJ @ DETThe market lists Detroit Lions -6.5; our model projects Detroit Lions to win by about 7, so we lean Detroit Lions -6.5, and the expert consensus agrees. | Detroit Lions -6.5 | Detroit Lions by 7 | 48.5 | Detroit Lions -6.5 | Our PulsePick58%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | WinDET 31 · NYJ 24 |
| Final |  LAC @ BUFThe market lists Buffalo Bills -7.0; our model projects Buffalo Bills to win by about 9, so we lean Buffalo Bills -7.0, and the expert consensus agrees. | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | Buffalo Bills by 9 | 50.5 | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | Our PulsePick57%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | WinBUF 24 · LAC 16 |
| Final |  CAR @ CLEThe market lists Carolina Panthers -2.5; our model projects Carolina Panthers to win by about 3, so we lean Carolina Panthers -2.5, and the expert consensus agrees. | Cleveland Browns +2.5 | Carolina Panthers by 3 | 42.5 | Carolina Panthers -2.5 | Our PulsePick57%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | LossCLE 21 · CAR 18 |
| Final |  LAR @ DENThe market lists Los Angeles Rams -2.5; our model projects Los Angeles Rams to win by about 3, so we lean Los Angeles Rams -2.5, and the expert consensus agrees. | Denver Broncos +2.5 | Los Angeles Rams by 3 | 45.5 | Los Angeles Rams -2.5 | Our PulsePick57%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | LossDEN 30 · LAR 26 |
| Final |  BAL @ DALThe market lists Baltimore Ravens -3.0; our model projects Dallas Cowboys to win by about 1, so we lean Dallas Cowboys +3.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | Dallas Cowboys by 1 | 52.5 | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | Our PulsePick56%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| PushBAL 34 · DAL 31 |
| Final |  LV @ NOThe market lists New Orleans Saints -3.0; our model projects New Orleans Saints to win by about 4, so we lean New Orleans Saints -3.0, and the expert consensus agrees. | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | New Orleans Saints by 4 | 43.5 | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | Our PulsePick56%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | LossLV 35 · NO 27 |
| Final |  TEN @ NYGThe market lists New York Giants -3.5; our model sees it as a near coin flip, so we lean Tennessee Titans +3.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | New York Giants -3.5 | Pick'em | 40.5 | Tennessee Titans +3.5 | Our PulsePick55%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| LossNYG 12 · TEN 7 |
| Final |  MIN @ TBThe market lists Minnesota Vikings -1.5; our model projects Minnesota Vikings to win by about 1, so we lean Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5, and the expert consensus agrees. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 1 | 42.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | Our PulsePick52%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split All Models AgreePower · Analysts | LossMIN 23 · TB 16 |
| Final |  HOU @ INDThe market lists Houston Texans -2.5; our model sees it as a near coin flip, so we lean Indianapolis Colts +2.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | Pick'em | 43.5 | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| WinIND 19 · HOU 17 |
| Final |  KC @ MIAThe market lists Kansas City Chiefs -11.5; our model projects Kansas City Chiefs to win by about 10, so we lean Miami Dolphins +11.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Miami Dolphins +11.5 | Kansas City Chiefs by 10 | 45.5 | Miami Dolphins +11.5 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| LossKC 24 · MIA 10 |
| Final |  CIN @ PITThe market lists Cincinnati Bengals -3.5; our model projects Cincinnati Bengals to win by about 2, so we lean Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | Cincinnati Bengals by 2 | 42.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| WinPIT 30 · CIN 27 |
| Final |  SEA @ WSHThe market lists Seattle Seahawks -7.0; our model projects Seattle Seahawks to win by about 5, so we lean Washington Commanders +7.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Washington Commanders +7.0 | Seattle Seahawks by 5 | 40.5 | Washington Commanders +7.0 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| WinWSH 33 · SEA 31 |
| Final |  NE @ JAXThe market lists Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0; our model projects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by about 3, so we lean New England Patriots +3.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 | 45.5 | New England Patriots +3.0 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| LossJAX 35 · NE 6 |
| Final |  PHI @ CHIThe market lists Philadelphia Eagles -3.0; our model projects Philadelphia Eagles to win by about 1, so we lean Chicago Bears +3.0, but the expert consensus leans the other way (which lowers our confidence). | Chicago Bears +3.0 | Philadelphia Eagles by 1 | 43.5 | Chicago Bears +3.0 | Our PulsePick50%How strongly our main model backs this call — not an average of the four leaderboard models. How our strategies split
| WinCHI 27 · PHI 7 |