Week 1 PulsePicks Weekly Wrap: How Our Picks Did and What We Saw

Week 1 PulsePicks Weekly Wrap: How Our Picks Did and What We Saw

This is the Weekly Wrap — the look back that closes the loop on the Week 1 Notebook. We published a pick and a confidence number on all 16 games before kickoff; now that they've been played, here's how the board actually did, graded honestly against the number we took.

The short version: it was a rough opener. We went 3-12-1 against the spread. Worse, the games we liked most are the ones that sank us — our higher-confidence calls went cold, and the only three winners all came from the 50% coin-flip pile. There were no upset alerts flagged this week, so nothing exotic to point to; the model simply had a bad slate.

A reminder we make every week, and mean more after one like this: the confidence percentage measures how tightly our signals lined up, not how likely a pick was to cash. Week 1 is the loudest reminder that alignment is not a promise.

The scorecard

Record against the spread: 3 wins, 12 losses, 1 push. The six calls we were most confident in (53% and up) went 0-5-1, and the lone spot above the coin-flip line, the Colts at 51%, also lost — so everything we rated better than a toss-up finished 0-6-1. The three wins (Bengals, Giants, Chiefs) all came from the 50% group. That's the opposite of how a good week is supposed to look, and it's worth sitting with rather than explaining away.

Commanders at Eagles — Final: Eagles 24, Commanders 22

Philadelphia won the game but not the cover, squeaking home by 2 as a 5.5-point favorite after Washington poured in 13 in the fourth quarter. We had Eagles -5.5 (60%), our most-confident call of the week. Eagles -5.5 — LOSS.

Patriots at Seahawks — Final: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10

Seattle rallied with 10 in the fourth to win by exactly 3, landing right on our number. Seahawks -3.0 (59%) graded as a PUSH — no harm, no help.

49ers at Rams — Final: 49ers 27, Rams 7

In the Melbourne opener, the Rams were flattened by 20 as a home-ish favorite. We backed Rams -3.5 (56%), and it was never close. Rams -3.5 — LOSS.

Jets at Titans — Final: Jets 23, Titans 10

Tennessee was a short favorite and lost outright by 13. Titans -1.5 (54%) — LOSS, and not on a back-door number either — the Jets simply won.

Saints at Lions — Final: Lions 31, Saints 30 (OT)

Detroit needed overtime to survive a one-point escape as a touchdown favorite. A win for the Lions, but nowhere near the number we laid. Lions -7.0 (53%) — LOSS.

Packers at Vikings — Final: Vikings 39, Packers 22

We took the points with Green Bay, and the Packers led before Minnesota ran off a long unanswered stretch to win by 17. Packers +1.5 (53%) — LOSS. One of our few against-the-room picks, and it backfired.

Ravens at Colts — Final: Ravens 41, Colts 23

Our model was cooler on the Ravens' number than the market, so we took the home points. Baltimore won by 18. Colts +3.5 (51%) — LOSS.

Buccaneers at Bengals — Final: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27

Finally, one that hit. Cincinnati won by 6 and covered the 3.5, with Ja'Marr Chase back in the lineup after his late-August knee scare. Bengals -3.5 (50%) — WIN.

Falcons at Steelers — Final: Steelers 20, Falcons 13

We took the points with Atlanta; Pittsburgh won by 7, a touch more than the 3.5 we needed. Falcons +3.5 (50%) — LOSS.

Bears at Panthers — Final: Bears 59, Panthers 37

Chicago erupted for 59 and buried our home-dog pick. Panthers +3.0 (50%) — LOSS by a wide margin.

Browns at Jaguars — Final: Jaguars 34, Browns 10

In the Jacksonville heat, the Jaguars rolled by 24 and blew past the 8.5 we were getting with Cleveland. Browns +8.5 (50%) — LOSS.

Bills at Texans — Final: Bills 36, Texans 31

We took the small home points; Buffalo won by 5. Texans +1.5 (50%) — LOSS, though at least this one stayed competitive to the end.

Dolphins at Raiders — Final: Raiders 27, Dolphins 13

Las Vegas won by 14 and our Miami points were never in play. Dolphins +3.5 (50%) — LOSS.

Cardinals at Chargers — Final: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14

This was our one spot backing a heavy favorite over the room, and Arizona flipped it entirely, winning outright by 12. Chargers -9.5 (50%) — LOSS, and a clean miss.

Cowboys at Giants — Final: Giants 28, Cowboys 20

The Giants won outright by 8, sailing past the field goal we were getting. Giants +3.0 (50%) — WIN.

Broncos at Chiefs — Final: Chiefs 31, Broncos 10

Patrick Mahomes returned from last season's knee injury and Kansas City cruised by 21, covering the 2.5 with ease on Monday night. Chiefs -2.5 (50%) — WIN.

What we got right, and what we missed

What we got right was thin: the three winners (Bengals, Giants, Chiefs) were all games we rated as pure coin-flips, and we took the correct side in each. What we missed was the heart of the board. Every pick we felt better than 50% about lost or pushed, including both of our headline calls. A few were bad beats — the Lions' one-point overtime survival, the Eagles winning without covering — but most were just wrong: the Rams, Titans, and Chargers didn't merely fail to cover, they lost outright as sides we backed.

One week is a small sample, and a 3-12-1 opener says more about variance and a noisy first Sunday than about the season ahead — but it's not a result we're going to dress up. The honest read is that the model's confident lean and the field's results pointed in opposite directions this week.

Track the full season on the public leaderboard, and we'll be back Thursday with the Week 2 Notebook.

For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+ and only where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.