Week 3 PulsePicks Notebook: Every Game, the Line, and What Our Model Sees
Our model's read on all 16 Week 3 games: the market line, our projection, and the PulsePick for each, with confidence from 50% to 64% and no upset alerts.
Week 3 PulsePicks Notebook: Every Game, the Line, and What Our Model Sees
This is the Notebook: the notes behind the board. The front page gives you one pick per game. Here we double-click on every Week 3 matchup in turn: the number the book is offering, what our model projects, and the side that gap points us toward. It goes up before the games, and a Weekly Wrap follows once the results are in.
The honest shape of the week: our confidence runs from 50% to 64%. That makes this a cautious slate, with one firmer read at the top and a long run of near coin flips at the bottom. There are no upset alerts this week; the model does not like any underdog to win outright.
One caution up front: the injury and weather notes below reflect the latest reports as of Thursday morning. Statuses move fast, and a Friday practice report, a Sunday inactive list or a shifting forecast can change the picture by kickoff. Treat them as a snapshot, not a final word.
How to read each game. The market line is the book's number. Our projection is our model's own view of the game, arrived at independently. The PulsePick falls out of the gap between the two: when our projected margin clears the number, we back the favorite; when it falls short, we take the points with the underdog. The confidence figure is how tightly our signals line up, nothing more.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers — Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The market lists San Francisco 49ers -8.5. Our model projects San Francisco 49ers by 14, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back 49ers -8.5 (64%).
Injury note: San Francisco is thin at receiver. Mike Evans (hip) is being managed this week, and Demarcus Robinson (ankle) is expected to miss several weeks.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers — Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET
The market lists Green Bay Packers -6.0. Our model projects Green Bay Packers by 8, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Packers -6.0 (59%).
Injury note: Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start of the season for Atlanta after a full week of practice. Green Bay has ruled out two offensive-line starters, guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Bako-Bewele, plus receiver Jayden Reed, and lists defensive tackle Javon Hargrave as questionable.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Detroit Lions -6.5. Our model projects Detroit Lions by 7, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Lions -6.5 (58%).
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Buffalo Bills -7.0. Our model projects Buffalo Bills by 9, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Bills -7.0 (57%).
Injury note: the Chargers' line is banged up, with tackle Trey Pipkins missing Wednesday's practice and left tackle Rashawn Slater limited. Buffalo's DJ Moore (shoulder) was limited after leaving Week 2 early.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Carolina Panthers -2.5. Our model projects Carolina Panthers by 3, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Panthers -2.5 (57%).
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos — Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
The market lists Los Angeles Rams -2.5. Our model projects Los Angeles Rams by 3, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Rams -2.5 (57%).
Injury note: the Rams' Puka Nacua sat out Week 2, and his status for Sunday night is still up in the air; Sean McVay said midweek he was not sure whether Nacua would play.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys — Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The market lists Baltimore Ravens -3.0. Our model projects Dallas Cowboys by 1, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Cowboys +3.0 (56%).
Worth knowing: this one is in Rio de Janeiro, not Dallas, so the usual home-field edge mostly goes away. Baltimore held out receiver Zay Flowers, left tackle Ronnie Stanley and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson from Wednesday's practice, while Dallas was without four defensive starters, including safety Malik Hooker (forearm).
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints — Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The market lists New Orleans Saints -3.0. Our model projects New Orleans Saints by 4, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Saints -3.0 (56%).
Injury note: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (knee) returned to practice on a limited basis and could make his season debut. The Saints placed left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. on injured reserve.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists New York Giants -3.5. Our model sees it as a near coin flip, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Titans +3.5 (55%).
Injury and weather note: Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season with a knee injury, so Jameis Winston starts for New York. Giants edge rusher Brian Burns (ankle) missed Wednesday's practice, as did Tennessee's top two running backs, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears (both ankle). Thursday's forecast for MetLife calls for a north wind near 15 mph and roughly a 40-45% chance of rain.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The market lists Minnesota Vikings -1.5. Our model projects Minnesota Vikings by 1, and the expert consensus lands on the same side we do. We back Buccaneers +1.5 (52%).
Injury note: Kyler Murray has cleared the concussion protocol and is set to start for Minnesota for the first time since leaving his Week 1 debut.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Houston Texans -2.5. Our model sees it as a near coin flip, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Colts +2.5 (50%).
Injury note: Houston receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) is not expected to play. Indianapolis lost receiver Alec Pierce (heel) to injured reserve.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Kansas City Chiefs -11.5. Our model projects Kansas City Chiefs by 10, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Dolphins +11.5 (50%).
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Cincinnati Bengals -3.5. Our model projects Cincinnati Bengals by 2, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Steelers +3.5 (50%).
Injury note: Pittsburgh running back Rico Dowdle (toe) missed Wednesday's practice, and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) was limited.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Seattle Seahawks -7.0. Our model projects Seattle Seahawks by 5, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Commanders +7.0 (50%).
Injury note: Jayden Daniels (dislocated left elbow) is out, and Marcus Mariota starts for Washington. On the other side, Sam Darnold (glute) returned to practice on a limited basis and has a chance to play.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The market lists Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0. Our model projects Jacksonville Jaguars by 3, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Patriots +3.0 (50%).
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears — Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
The market lists Philadelphia Eagles -3.0. Our model projects Philadelphia Eagles by 1, but the expert consensus leans the other way, which is part of why the number stays modest. We back Bears +3.0 (50%).
Injury note: Chicago's Caleb Williams (hamstring) is week to week and not expected to practice, so the Bears' quarterback for Monday night is unsettled. Philadelphia tight end Dallas Goedert (knee) is expected to miss a few weeks.
A reminder on that confidence number: it measures how well our signals agree, not a promise about any single game. The 64% at the top is our firmest read of the week, and even a call like that loses plenty of the time; a 50% is close to a coin flip, and we say so. Track how every pick actually does on the public leaderboard, and check back for the Weekly Wrap once the games are played.
For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+ and only where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.