Week 3 PulsePicks Weekly Wrap: How Our Picks Did and What We Saw
PulsePicks went 6-9-1 against the spread in Week 3, as the nine picks at 55%+ confidence went 2-6-1 and the seven 50-54% coin-flips finished 4-3.
Week 3 PulsePicks Weekly Wrap: How Our Picks Did and What We Saw
This is the review companion to Thursday's PulsePicks Notebook: once the games are actually played, we come back and grade the board against what really happened. Every call from the Week 3 board gets checked against the final score, with no quiet edits to old picks.
The headline number is not a good one. PulsePicks went 6-9-1 against the spread in Week 3 (6 wins, 9 losses, 1 push). The confident end of the board did the damage: the nine picks at 55% confidence or higher went a combined 2-6-1, and our single most confident call, San Francisco -8.5, came up 2.5 points short. The seven games near a coin flip (50-54%) did better at 4-3, but not by enough to save the week.
As always, the confidence percentage measures how many of our inputs lined up in the same direction. It is not a promise that a pick will win, and this week is a fair reminder of that.
Scorecard: 6-9-1 ATS overall. Picks at 55%+ confidence: 2-6-1. Picks at 50-54% confidence: 4-3-0. Upset-alert plays: none were flagged on this week's board. Games where the expert consensus was on our side: 2-6. Games where it leaned the other way: 4-3-1.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers — Final: 49ers 36, Cardinals 30
San Francisco 49ers -8.5 — LOSS (64% confidence). 49ers won, but by only 6, which fell 2.5 short of the 8.5 we laid. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers — Final: Falcons 35, Packers 14
Green Bay Packers -6.0 — LOSS (59% confidence). Packers lost outright by 21, so the 6-point number was never in play. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions — Final: Lions 31, Jets 24
Detroit Lions -6.5 — WIN (58% confidence). Lions won by 7, clearing the 6.5-point number by 0.5. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills — Final: Bills 24, Chargers 16
Buffalo Bills -7.0 — WIN (57% confidence). Bills won by 8, clearing the 7-point number by 1. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns — Final: Browns 21, Panthers 18
Carolina Panthers -2.5 — LOSS (57% confidence). Panthers lost outright by 3, so the 2.5-point number was never in play. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos — Final: Broncos 30, Rams 26
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 — LOSS (57% confidence). Rams lost outright by 4, so the 2.5-point number was never in play. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys — Final: Ravens 34, Cowboys 31
Dallas Cowboys +3.0 — PUSH (56% confidence). Cowboys lost by exactly 3, so the 3-point number landed on the nose and the bet is a push. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints — Final: Raiders 35, Saints 27
New Orleans Saints -3.0 — LOSS (56% confidence). Saints lost outright by 8, so the 3-point number was never in play. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants — Final: Giants 12, Titans 7
Tennessee Titans +3.5 — LOSS (55% confidence). Titans lost by 5, 1.5 outside the 3.5 points we took. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Final: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 — LOSS (52% confidence). Buccaneers lost by 7, 5.5 outside the 1.5 points we took. In this one, the expert consensus was on our side.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts — Final: Colts 19, Texans 17
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 — WIN (50% confidence). Colts won outright, so the 2.5 points were a bonus. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins — Final: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10
Miami Dolphins +11.5 — LOSS (50% confidence). Dolphins lost by 14, 2.5 outside the 11.5 points we took. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers — Final: Steelers 30, Bengals 27
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 — WIN (50% confidence). Steelers won outright, so the 3.5 points were a bonus. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders — Final: Commanders 33, Seahawks 31
Washington Commanders +7.0 — WIN (50% confidence). Commanders won outright, so the 7 points were a bonus. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — Final: Jaguars 35, Patriots 6
New England Patriots +3.0 — LOSS (50% confidence). Patriots lost by 29, 26 outside the 3 points we took. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears — Final: Bears 27, Eagles 7
Chicago Bears +3.0 — WIN (50% confidence). Bears won outright, so the 3 points were a bonus. In this one, the expert consensus leaned the other way.
What we got right, what we missed
What we missed: the top of the board. Four of our six highest-confidence picks lost against the spread, and in the two most lopsided misses, Green Bay -6.0 and New England +3.0, the game was not close. Green Bay lost outright by 21 to Atlanta, and New England lost by 29 at Jacksonville. Agreement among our inputs did not help either: in the eight games where the expert consensus sided with us, the board went just 2-6.
What we got right: the underdog side of the coin flips. Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago all won their games outright, and Chicago's 27-7 win over Philadelphia on Monday night was the biggest cover of the week. Dallas +3.0 lost by exactly three to Baltimore on a last-play field goal, a push that at least avoided another loss. Detroit -6.5 and Buffalo -7.0 also cleared their numbers.
No model wins them all, and a confidence number is a measure of how aligned our signals were, not a promise about the outcome. The public leaderboard has the full model-by-model tracking, and the next Notebook, with our Week 4 board, goes up Thursday.
For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. 21+ and only where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.